A small study—just 90 people—found that it honestly doesn’t matter if you choose to drink beer before wine or wine before beer; the severity of your hangover is an external constant you can’t control.
Some participants in the study had the tough job of downing two-and-a-half pints of beer followed by four glasses of wine.
Still more brave test subjects stuck with one or the other.
But switching the order of intake had no effect on their hangovers in any way.
Beer before wine is not always fine.
Barfing.
Shocking no one, participants who vomited from drinking too much rated their hangover as more severe.
Please drink responsibly, people.
A full stomach and consistent hydration throughout the night is what really works.
And remember, there’s no way to cheat the system.

formally unveiled Thursday outlines plans to cut global greenhouse gas emissions 40 to 60 percent from 2010 levels by 2030 and to reduce human-caused greenhouse gases to net zero by 2050.
In the lead-up to the unveiling, after months of calling for lawmakers to get on board, their plan received enthusiastic support from major candidates hoping to take down President Donald Trump in 2020.
Sens.
Cory Booker (D-N.Y.), Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.)
Meanwhile, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), has had a more tempered response, emphasizing that there will be other resolutions on the table to consider.
“I welcome the Green New Deal and any other proposals,” she said.
“I’m pleased that House Committees began holding hearings on climate change this week, and I look forward to bringing legislation to the House Floor to reduce carbon pollution, help our communities prepare for current and future climate risks, and create clean energy jobs,” he told HuffPost in an email.
Among the chairs of climate-adjacent House panels, Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.) of the Natural Resources Committee is the only one to explicitly support the resolution, calling it “the right framework for the work we need to do, in Congress and across the nation, to reduce our fossil fuel use, create green jobs, and protect our country and our planet for the long term.” As for the Senate, none of the party’s leaders have given their support to the Green New Deal or replied to inquiries about it.
“I’m grateful for Senator Markey’s passion and strong voice on these issues,” he said in a statement Thursday.
I encourage members of our committee to examine the Green New Deal resolution and consider the ways in which we may be able to incorporate its ideas within our work this Congress.”

From the good ol’ UEA <—- I suggest you check out link~ctm Forecast suggests Earth’s warmest period on record University of East Anglia Temperature figures table Credit: Met Office The forecast for the global average surface temperature for the five-year period to 2023 is predicted to be near or above 1.0 °C above pre-industrial levels, says the Met Office. Professor Adam Scaife, Head of Long-Range Prediction at the Met Office said: “2015 was the first year that global annual average surface temperatures reached 1.0 °C above pre-industrial levels and the following three years have all remained close to this level. The global average temperature between now and 2023 is predicted to remain high, potentially making the decade from 2014 the warmest in more than 150 years of records.” Averaged over the five-year period 2019-2023, forecast patterns suggest enhanced warming is likely over much of the globe, especially over land and at high northern latitudes, particularly the Arctic region. Predictions now suggest around a 10 per cent chance of at least one year between 2019 and 2023 temporarily exceeding 1.5 °C.” Alongside this forecast, 2018 is today cited to be nominally the fourth warmest year on record globally in data released by the Met Office, at 0.91±0.1°C above the long-term pre-industrial average. It follows 2015, 2016 and 2017, which are the three warmest years in the 169-year record of the HadCRUT4 dataset. Professor Tim Osborn, director of the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit, which co-produces the HadCRUT4 global temperature figures with the Met Office Hadley Centre, said: “The warmth of 2018 is in line with the long-term warming trend driven by the world’s emissions of greenhouse gases.” The effects of climate change are not limited to surface temperature. The Met Office decadal forecast show that global average surface temperatures may be close to reaching 1.5 °C, but this would be a temporary exceedance rather than the climatological level of warming in the Paris 1.5 °C threshold. EurekAlert! Highlights Combines multiple methods estimating pre-Columbian population numbers. Estimates European arrival in 1492 lead to 56 million deaths by 1600.

Pin It We’ve long suspected that Justin Bieber is laser-focused on the latest wellness trends and a recent interview confirms that fact.
The Biebs opened up to Vogue about his experience with soul-searching at the celebrity-approved Hoffman Institute, which hosts supposedly transformative weeklong retreats in St. Helena, California.
Feeling like he wasn’t prepared to meet the demands of the Hoffman Process, the newlywed pop star left the program after a few short days.
But we’re still curious about what goes on behind closed doors.
Several celebrities have eagerly endorsed the Hoffman Process.
Katy Perry cited her time at the California campus (there’s another one in Connecticut) for providing a “soul foundation.” Sienna Miller depicted her week as “terrifying but extraordinary.” Still, for those who haven’t participated, the Hoffman Process is somewhat shrouded in mystery.
He described the institute as a place for people who want to “change.” “We encourage people to lean into the pain that they’re carrying in a certain way, with instruction and observation,” he said.
The Hoffman Process helps attendees “unlearn” negative behaviors and thereby begin a journey of self-understanding, says Ingrasci.
The Hoffman Process helps attendees “unlearn” negative behaviors and thereby begin a journey of self-understanding.
“It helps to physicalize emotions as a first step to processing feelings and trauma emotionally and psychologically.” Dr. Irwin warns that some psychologists don’t recommend such exercises because they could ultimately lead to more aggressive behavior, but says its certainly better than avoiding deep-seated feelings altogether.

The House Judiciary Committee, now led by Democrats, advanced the “No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels Act” Thursday.
That sets the bipartisan “NOPEC” bill, which would subject the cartel to possible antitrust action by the Department of Justice, up for a possible House vote.
A similar bill targeting OPEC was introduced in the Senate on Thursday.
OPEC’s members “deliberately collude to limit crude oil production as a means of fixing prices, unfairly driving up the price of crude oil,” House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jerrold Nadler said before voting in favor of the legislation.
Various iterations of the bill have been proposed in the past, and former presidents have threatened to use their veto power to scupper the legislation.
But President Donald Trump could be more amenable, given his frequent twitter attacks accusing the group of keeping oil prices artificially high.
“I’m not going to predict it will get passed and enacted into law, but I think its prospects are pretty good,” said Seth Bloom, former general counsel of the Senate Antitrust Subcommittee.
“OPEC doesn’t have too many friends right now and the legislation may likely have a friend in the White House given Trump has written favorably about it in the past.”
“If OPEC members conducted the same manipulation in the United States that they practice in Vienna, they could be prosecuted,” said Robbie Diamond, who heads up Securing America’s Future Energy.
All comments are subject to editorial review.

Scientists use the deep-diving robot Jason to collect water samples from oceanic crust at a subseafloor observatory off the coast of Washington.
A recent study found that a group of unusual microbes living below the seafloor provides clues to the evolution of life on Earth, and potentially other planets.
Researchers used cutting-edge molecular methods to study these microbes, which thrive in the hot, oxygen-free fluids that flow through Earth’s crust.
Called Hydrothermarchaeota, this group of microbes lives in such an extreme environment that they have never been cultivated in a laboratory for study.
A research team from Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences, the University of Hawai’i at Manoa, and the Department of Energy Joint Genome Institute bypassed the problem of cultivation with genetic sequencing methods called genomics, a suite of novel techniques used to sequence large groups of genetic information.
They found that Hydrothermarchaeota may obtain energy by processing carbon monoxide and sulfate, which is an overlooked metabolic strategy.
Analyzing Hydrothermarchaeota genomes revealed that these microbes belong to the group of single-celled life known as archaea and evolved early in the history of life on Earth — as did their unusual metabolic processes. “Studying these unique microbes can give us insights into both the history of Earth and the potential strategies of life on other planets,” said Stephanie Carr, first author on the paper and a former postdoctoral researcher with Orcutt who is now an assistant professor at Hartwick College. “Their survival strategies make them incredibly versatile, and they play an important, overlooked role in the subsurface environments where they live.”
Working in partnership with the Department of Energy Joint Genome Institute, the researchers sorted and analyzed the microbes in the Single Cell Genomics Center at Bigelow Laboratory.

For the first time, carbon dioxide is being captured at a biomass power plant in the UK.
Britain’s Drax announced that its pilot bioenergy carbon capture and storage project is expected to capture a ton of CO2 a day from its North Yorkshire-based wood-burning plant.
The company is also finding ways to store and use the captured carbon. “This innovative technology has the potential to make huge strides in our efforts to tackle climate change while kick-starting an entirely new cutting-edge industry in the UK,” Britain’s energy and clean growth minister Claire Perry said in a press release.
The BBC explained how such plants can go negative: When a forest grows, the trees absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and use it to make their wood.
It’s called carbon neutral.
Proponents of carbon capture and storage or CCS, tout it as a way to help stop global temperature rise.
However, critics say the nascent technology is too expensive to implement on a large scale for it to be commercially viable. “One way to reduce coal’s impact is to capture, compress and bury its emissions—but it’s much simpler, cheaper and safer to simply leave the coal in the ground,” Simon Holmes à Court, a senior adviser to the Energy Transition Hub at Melbourne University, wrote in the Guardian.
Every year, Drax’s biomass plant burns about 7 million metric tons of wood chips—mostly from trees grown in the U.S.—to generate 6 percent of the UK’s electricity, according to the BBC.

The earth is warming up.
Earth’s history tells us that climate change has always happened.
And what caused the Warm Medieval Period?
The great certainty that the IPCC wants the world to believe that man is responsible is scientifically unsustainable.
To limit global warming to 2 degrees, CO2 emissions must be reduced by about 25% by 2030 and by about 85% by 2050.
The success of the climate movement is a simple message: “Human CO2 is the cause of global warming; global warming is causing a catastrophe; if we turn the CO2 knob, everything will be fine again.” But for the above claims there is no proof.
If the authors are really serious about CO2, they should be making a massive plea for keeping the existing nuclear power plants open for as long as possible.
CO2 emissions are still increasing worldwide, so we are not emitting less, but more and more every year.
For example, if we in the Netherlands achieve the target of 49% CO2 reduction by 2030 (more than the authors of the open letter propose), it would result in 0.0003 degrees less warming by 2100 – negligible and immeasurable.
However, the question is how many jobs are lost elsewhere and what the net effect is.

formally unveiled Thursday outlines plans to cut global greenhouse gas emissions 40 to 60 percent from 2010 levels by 2030 and to reduce human-caused greenhouse gases to net zero by 2050.
In the lead-up to the unveiling, after months of calling for lawmakers to get on board, their plan received enthusiastic support from major candidates hoping to take down President Donald Trump in 2020.
Sens.
Cory Booker (D-N.Y.), Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.)
Meanwhile, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), has had a more tempered response, emphasizing that there will be other resolutions on the table to consider.
“I welcome the Green New Deal and any other proposals,” she said.
“I’m pleased that House Committees began holding hearings on climate change this week, and I look forward to bringing legislation to the House Floor to reduce carbon pollution, help our communities prepare for current and future climate risks, and create clean energy jobs,” he told HuffPost in an email.
Among the chairs of climate-adjacent House panels, Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.) of the Natural Resources Committee is the only one to explicitly support the resolution, calling it “the right framework for the work we need to do, in Congress and across the nation, to reduce our fossil fuel use, create green jobs, and protect our country and our planet for the long term.” As for the Senate, none of the party’s leaders have given their support to the Green New Deal or replied to inquiries about it.
“I’m grateful for Senator Markey’s passion and strong voice on these issues,” he said in a statement Thursday.
I encourage members of our committee to examine the Green New Deal resolution and consider the ways in which we may be able to incorporate its ideas within our work this Congress.”

Glowing green The Green New Deal has been championed by advocates for getting the country running on purely renewable energy right away.
Some 600 environmental groups had demanded the initiative set out to ban not just fossil fuels, but also nuclear, biomass power, and large-scale hydroelectricity.
So when the resolution made its long-awaited debut on Thursday, it came as a surprise to some that the door was left open for nuclear power and even fossil fuels with carbon capture.
So just like that, the most aggressive climate policy proposal we’ve seen in years has the de facto backing of the Democratic party.
The non-binding resolution, unveiled by Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez from New York, and Senator Ed Markey from Massachusetts, calls for “clean, renewable, and zero-emission energy sources.” In wonk-speak, zero-emission is code for nuclear power or fossil fuels with carbon capture.
It’s unclear if we will be able to decommission every nuclear plant within 10 years, but the plan is to transition off of nuclear and all fossil fuels as soon as possible.” The factsheet disappeared from Ocasio-Cortez’s website on Thursday after the resolution was released.
Booker and Warren, for instance, have voted to fund research on advanced nuclear power.
The resolution calls on the US to meet “100% of power demand through clean, renewable, and zero-emissions energy sources.”
That includes “dramatically expanding … renewable power sources” but can also be read as inclusive of clean, CO2-free sources like nuclear & carbon capture — JesseJenkins (@JesseJenkins) February 7, 2019 The evidence overwhelmingly suggests that we will need to rely on a variety of energy sources to make deep cuts to carbon emissions.
Now, after voting for years to kill market-based climate policies, they’re getting a taste of just what they had feared.

Massive starfish die-off is tied to global warming Starfish deaths from wasting disease — which can disrupt entire ocean ecosystems — are correlated with higher ocean temperatures, a new study finds.
Read the story here.
The story: While associating frigid weather with a warmer Earth may seem counterintuitive, the extreme temperatures in the U.S. last week are indeed caused by climate change and resulted from the polar vortex, Jennifer Francis reported for The Huffington Post last week.
The big picture: Usually, the polar vortex stays North because of the pressure differences caused by extremely low temperatures in the Arctic and semi-warm temperatures in the, say, Midwest, but climate change has caused the Arctic to warm twice as fast as the rest of the world, disrupting this pressure difference and making the polar vortex less likely to stay north.
“And it’s clear that at times, coping with global warming means arming ourselves with extra scarfs, mittens and long underwear.” Read the story here.
In December, many of the world’s largest conservation organizations — including Conservation International — posted a joint statement calling for 30 percent of the planet to be protected by 2030.
The story: The goal with protecting 30 percent of the planet by 2030 and 50 percent by 2050 is to fight climate change, protect biodiversity and stop extinctions, Emma Marris reported for National Geographic last week.
As of last year, 14.9 percent of terrestrial Earth and 7.3 percent of oceans were formally protected, making this goal still attainable.
Protecting 30 percent of the world would provide habitat for biodiversity and also fight climate change by enabling trees and plants to capture climate-warming carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
Donate to Conservation International here.

Climate Desk This story was originally published by the Guardian and is reproduced here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration.
European colonization of the Americas resulted in the killing of so many native people that it transformed the environment and caused the Earth’s climate to cool down, new research has found.
The regrowth soaked up enough carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to actually cool the planet, with the average temperature dropping by 0.15 degrees C (0.27 degrees F) in the late 1500s and early 1600s, the study by scientists at University College London found.
The study attributes the deaths to factors including introduced disease, such as smallpox and measles, as well as warfare and societal collapse.
Researchers then calculated how much land indigenous people required and then subsequently fell into disuse, finding that around 55 million hectares, an area roughly equivalent to France, became vacant and was reclaimed by carbon dioxide-absorbing vegetation.
Scientists have warned that the world has little over a decade to drastically reduce emissions or face increasingly severe storms, drought, heatwaves, coastal flooding, and food insecurity.
The revegetation of the Americas after European arrival aided declines of global carbon content in the air, dropping by around 7 to 10 parts of carbon dioxide for every million molecules of air in the atmosphere.
This compares to the 3 ppm of carbon dioxide that humanity is currently adding to the atmosphere every year through the burning of fossil fuels.
“There is a lot of talk around ‘negative emissions’ approaching and using tree-planting to take carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere to mitigate climate change,” study coauthor Chris Brierley told the BBC.
“And what we see from this study is the scale of what’s required, because the great dying resulted in an area the size of France being reforested and that gave us only a few parts per million.” “This is useful,” he continued, “it shows us what reforestation can do.

A die-off of sea stars so massive that scientists believe it could be the largest disease epidemic ever observed in wild marine animals has been linked in a new study to global warming.
Scientists believe a disease once of little concern has been wiping out the sea star population because of warming waters.
Researchers discovered that sea star devastation appeared to be particularly marked where water temperatures are highest, such as in shallow waters near the shore — though oceans water temperatures are generally also increasing.
The “marine heat wave” is triggering a “continental-scale collapse of a pivotal predator,” the study notes.
Since 2013, sea star wasting disease has “caused massive, ongoing mortality from Mexico to Alaska,” the study states.
“What we think is that the warm water anomalies made these starfish more susceptible to the disease that was already out there,” study author Joe Gaydos, the science director of the SeaDoc Society at the University of California at Davis, told NPR.
Dying sea stars can trigger a cascading ecological collapse as animals that depend on the creatures suffer in turn — and animals the sea stars eat can proliferate in destructive numbers once the sea stars are gone.
The population of sea urchins once eaten by healthy sea stars has exploded in areas without the predators.
The urchins then gobble up sea kelp, destroying kelp forest ecosystems.
“We have higher biodiversity when we have more kelp.

smell a rat It’s getting harder and harder to reconcile Punxsutawney Phil’s Groundhog Day predictions with the realities of climate change.
As the planet warms and winters become increasingly and predictably shorter, America’s favorite rodent continues to see his shadow in blatant disregard for scientific consensus.
We were as shocked as you surely are about the groundhog king’s transgressions.
One Grist staffer lashed out in anger, calling Phil a beaver despite the fact that groundhogs are better described as giant squirrels — the words of someone clearly experiencing unspeakable hurt.
What about General Beauregard Lee?
Are all of our trusted fluffy meteorologists just underground agents of climate denial?
In the true spirit of investigative reporting, we dug through tens of years-old local news articles to bring you a definitive list of which cute clairvoyants can — and cannot — be trusted.
Rufus the Mountain Beaver: Deforestation fan Groundhogs are exclusively an East Coast thing — but, in true West Coast fashion, there’s a deceptively crunchy and equally heinous version living in Washington state.
Despite having no real credentials, Lee has been awarded a “Doctor of Weather Prognostication” from a professor at the University of Georgia and a “Doctor of Southern Groundology” from Georgia State University.
Staten Island Chuck: Pro-public transit revolutionary Not everyone agrees with Staten Island Chuck’s rather extreme methods, like when he bit then-Mayor Michael Bloomberg during a Groundhog Day celebration.

From the good ol’ UEA <—- I suggest you check out link~ctm Forecast suggests Earth’s warmest period on record University of East Anglia Temperature figures table Credit: Met Office The forecast for the global average surface temperature for the five-year period to 2023 is predicted to be near or above 1.0 °C above pre-industrial levels, says the Met Office. Professor Adam Scaife, Head of Long-Range Prediction at the Met Office said: “2015 was the first year that global annual average surface temperatures reached 1.0 °C above pre-industrial levels and the following three years have all remained close to this level. The global average temperature between now and 2023 is predicted to remain high, potentially making the decade from 2014 the warmest in more than 150 years of records.” Averaged over the five-year period 2019-2023, forecast patterns suggest enhanced warming is likely over much of the globe, especially over land and at high northern latitudes, particularly the Arctic region. Predictions now suggest around a 10 per cent chance of at least one year between 2019 and 2023 temporarily exceeding 1.5 °C.” Alongside this forecast, 2018 is today cited to be nominally the fourth warmest year on record globally in data released by the Met Office, at 0.91±0.1°C above the long-term pre-industrial average. It follows 2015, 2016 and 2017, which are the three warmest years in the 169-year record of the HadCRUT4 dataset. Professor Tim Osborn, director of the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit, which co-produces the HadCRUT4 global temperature figures with the Met Office Hadley Centre, said: “The warmth of 2018 is in line with the long-term warming trend driven by the world’s emissions of greenhouse gases.” The effects of climate change are not limited to surface temperature. The Met Office decadal forecast show that global average surface temperatures may be close to reaching 1.5 °C, but this would be a temporary exceedance rather than the climatological level of warming in the Paris 1.5 °C threshold. EurekAlert! Highlights Combines multiple methods estimating pre-Columbian population numbers. Estimates European arrival in 1492 lead to 56 million deaths by 1600.

The earth is warming up.
Earth’s history tells us that climate change has always happened.
And what caused the Warm Medieval Period?
The great certainty that the IPCC wants the world to believe that man is responsible is scientifically unsustainable.
To limit global warming to 2 degrees, CO2 emissions must be reduced by about 25% by 2030 and by about 85% by 2050.
The success of the climate movement is a simple message: “Human CO2 is the cause of global warming; global warming is causing a catastrophe; if we turn the CO2 knob, everything will be fine again.” But for the above claims there is no proof.
If the authors are really serious about CO2, they should be making a massive plea for keeping the existing nuclear power plants open for as long as possible.
CO2 emissions are still increasing worldwide, so we are not emitting less, but more and more every year.
For example, if we in the Netherlands achieve the target of 49% CO2 reduction by 2030 (more than the authors of the open letter propose), it would result in 0.0003 degrees less warming by 2100 – negligible and immeasurable.
However, the question is how many jobs are lost elsewhere and what the net effect is.

The new rules will define which fuels can be counted toward EU renewable energy targets.
If it is adopted, the European Parliament and member countries will have two months to give any objections before it’s finalised.
If the commission chooses tough criteria could significantly limit one of Indonesia’s and Malaysia’s biggest exports – palm oil.
“Malaysia is committed to producing sustainable palm oil … every drop of palm oil produced in Malaysia will be certified sustainable by 2020.” Jakarta, meanwhile, plans to lodge a complaint with the WTO on the grounds that the EU directive will unfairly target palm oil in favour of European commodities like rapeseed oil, Reuters reported last week.
Instead, palm oil and other crops will have to pass new “objective and non-discriminatory” criteria in order to qualify as low-carbon and renewable sources of energy, the EU’s ambassador to Indonesia, Vincent Guérend, wrote in a letter to the Jakarta Post in November.
“If it failed to pass these criteria, palm oil imports would still be possible under current condition, except European member states could not count it as ‘renewable energy’ anymore.” The EU is working with the Indonesian government to see how its palm oil can comply with the coming rules, with about four years to prepare, he added.
According to the NGO Transport & Environment (T&E), biodiesel releases three times the greenhouse gas emissions of fossil fuel diesel, once land use is taken into account.
On the other hand, banning palm oil outright – which the Commission does not intend to do – would hurt more sustainable producers as well.
France announced in November that it will stop imports of palm oil, soy, beef and other products linked to deforestation and unsustainable agriculture by 2030.
NOTE: This article was amended to indicate that the rules may not be finalised at the meeting this week.

We covered this over the weekend.Lord Deben is facing calls to step away from the trough.
UK Climate Change Committee head, @lorddeben facing calls to resign over what appear to be ‘colossal’ and ‘scandalous’ conflicts of interest Now Josh weighs in with a cartoon.
Estimates European arrival in 1492 lead to 56 million deaths by 1600.
Large population reduction led to reforestation of 55.8 Mha and 7.4 Pg… David Rose exposes another apparently corrupt green politician: Tory peer in £600,000 conflict of interest: Climate Change chief John Gummer faces calls to quit over payments from ‘green businesses’ to his family firm… Conservative peer’s family-run consultancy been paid huge sums by businesses MPs say Mr Gummer should have declared the payments – but he… From E & E News Scott Waldman, E&E News reporter Climatewire: Friday, February 1, 2019 John Christy, director of the University of Alabama, Huntsville, Earth System Science Center, will join EPA’s Science Advisory Board.
Michael Mercier/University of Alabama, Huntsville The Earth will benefit from burning more fossil fuels and regulations on greenhouse gases must be… And the global warming apocalypse is not nigh.
Jeffrey Foss, PhD Everyone has heard the bad news.
Imminent Climate Apocalypse (aka “global warming” and “climate change”) threatens humanity and planet with devastation, unless we abandon the use of fossil fuels.
Far fewer people have heard the good news.
The sun… From The Daily Caller Michael Bastasch | Energy Editor New evidence suggests climate model predictions are way off when it comes to the Gulf Stream.
Scientists warned global warming could halt the Atlantic’s “conveyor belt” and plunge temperatures.

From The Daily Caller Michael Bastasch | Energy Editor New evidence suggests climate model predictions are way off when it comes to the Gulf Stream.
New evidence casts further doubt on model-based predictions that global warming could halt the Gulf Stream currents as part of an alarming scenario that inspired the 2004 disaster film, “The Day After Tomorrow.” For years, scientists warned global warming could halt the Atlantic’s “conveyor belt” and foment extreme weather and raise sea levels from North America to Europe.
That prediction is based on climate models that, the new study found, may be analyzing the wrong thing.
Lozier’s study found that climate models overestimate the role of the Labrador Sea west of Greenland in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC).
Scientists Are Pushing Back) Jake Gyllenhaal (L) and Emmy Rossum, cast members in the motion picture ‘The Day After Tomorrow’ pose during a photocall in Berlin May 5, 2004.
Observational data is available for the Gulf Stream closer to the U.S., which brings warm water north.
A 2014 study examining actual measurements taken off the U.S. coast found “absolutely no evidence that suggests that the Gulf Stream is slowing down,” its lead author said.
The AMOC is like a conveyor belt that brings warm, salty water north towards Greenland where it’s mixed with fresher cold water.
Climate models generally predict warming will weaken the AMOC, but observational evidence has been scant.
Lozier’s study provides further evidence that climate models may be wrong on more than just temperature rise.

But of course climate change is not an allegory.
Close enough, in fact, that we are already beginning to feel its effects ourselves, when we do not turn away.
Five of the 20 worst fires in California history hit the state in the autumn of 2017, a year in which more than 9,000 separate ones broke out, burning through almost 1.25m acres – nearly 2,000 sq miles made soot.
The second force is also contained in the story of the wildfires: the way that climate change is finally striking close to home.
Fires that far north are increasing more rapidly than in lower altitudes By accidents of geography and by the force of its wealth, the US has, to this point, been mostly protected from the devastation climate change has already visited on parts of the less developed world.
Much more fire, much more often, burning much more land.
American wildfires now burn twice as much land as they did as recently as 1970.
At three degrees of warming, our likely benchmark for the end of the century, the US might be dealing with 16 times as much devastation from fire as we are today, when in a single year 10m acres were burned.
One child who didn’t make it was found close to two miles from his home, in a gulley traced by train tracks close to the waterfront, having been carried there, presumably, on a continuous wave of mud.
But it is not a fatalistic scenario; in fact, it’s a whole lot better than where we are headed without action – north of 4C by 2100, and the perhaps six or even more degrees of warming in the centuries to come.